BY NIKKI BARRON

If you took a few days off from Coronavirus news to tend to your mental health, good for you! I know I needed a few days away from doom scrolling the pandemic myself but now that I am feeling ready to dive back in I wanted to provide our viewers with a comprehensive look at where we are at in regards to the Coronavirus Variant, Vaccine, and Federal Relief Bill.

THE NEW CORONAVIRUS VARIANT (B.1.1.7)

The new Coronavirus variant has officially landed in the United States. The B.1.1.7 variant appears to be between 10 and 60 percent (as scientists do more testing they are putting it around 56% at this time) more transmissible than the original version of the Coronavirus. 

What does that mean for us? 

We are seeing evidence that this new variant will create a new spike in the United States because places that discovered the variant first, like the UK and South Africa, are seeing a huge spike in comparison to similar countries. It took under 3 months for the new variant to become the dominant strain in the UK and experts say by March 2021 it will be the dominant strain in the U.S. 

Why is the new variant more contagious?

Scientists believe this new variant may increase the viral load in infected people’s noses and throats making it easier to spread through breathing, sneezing, coughing, and even talking. This variant means we will need a stricter adherence to precautionary measures like social distancing, mask-wearing, hand hygiene, and improved ventilation. 

Is the new variant more lethal?

Variant B.1.1.7 isn’t directly more lethal but what it does is increase case counts which in turn overloads the health systems causing more deaths. Experts predict that the new increased contagious nature of the virus will outpace the vaccination roll-out. 

Why do viruses mutate? 

So all living cells mutate, even human cells. It is part of the natural selection process. The mutation is meant to help an organism thrive. So in theory you could say as we slow the virus spread down, through social distancing and vaccines, the virus is mutating to counteract that because its main objective is to spread. 

Viruses, compared to humans, typically mutate faster because humans have safety measures in place to “proofread” the genome and repair errors in the genetic sequence if any are found that viruses do not have. This is so we aren’t constantly changing and mutating to our environments. 

It is completely normal for viruses to change a lot, some cause the virus to thrive more easily, some cause it to have a disadvantage, but mostly they don’t change much for the virus. What is interesting about the SARS-CoV-2 virus is that it is actually a pretty slow mutator, only about 2 mutations a month, meaning it was already really well adapted to humans. This supports the theory that the virus was circulating, likely as a less lethal form, for a long period before it was discovered in Wuhan. 

Do the approved Coronavirus Vaccines work on the new variant? 

At this point all the science points to yes, the vaccines do work on the B.1.1.7 variant. 

THE CORONAVIRUS VACCINE

We have approved 3 coronavirus vaccines in the United States. All three show really strong effectiveness of up to 95%. These are manufactured by Moderna. Pfizer and BionTech.

What does it mean to be 95% effective? 

It might sound like they mean out of 100 infected people 95 of them were protected but that is not actually how the math works. To test vaccines researchers vaccinate some of the volunteers and give some of the volunteers a placebo. They don’t then give them all COVID-19. They send them back out in their communities to live. 

For example, in the Pfizer vaccine trial, the company recruited 43,661 volunteers and waited for 170 people to come back to them with positive results. Out of these 170 people 162 had received the placebo and 8 had received the vaccine. Essentially, the fraction of people who came back positive that were vaccinated compared to the ones who came back positive but didn't get vaccinated is how they determine efficacy. So the math is 162/170 gives us the 95%. Generally, vaccine efficacy is a bit lower in a real-world scenario over a clinical trial. 

It is important to note that none of the current studies published can tell us how well it will actually curb the spread of the virus because they only tracked how many people became sick with coronavirus and not those that may have been asymptomatic carriers so it could be that vaccinated people can still spread the virus putting unvaccinated people at risk. We still don’t know if the immune response can replicate faster than the virus, which is what we would need to see in order to say it will curb the spread. But the good news is that a vaccine is a powerful tool against severe illness. 

How effective will the Coronavirus Vaccine be at stopping the pandemic? 

So here is an easy way to understand the coronavirus pandemic. In Washington State, as you know, we are plagued by wildfires. Now imagine the only tool we had to fight fires were fire hoses. It is just not going to cut it. It will slow the spread of the fire but we have to use other measures like digging fire lines etc. to stop it. So think of the vaccine as a firehouse. 

At the current level of infections in the U.S. (200,000 per day) with a 95% effectiveness distributed at the expected pace for 6 months will still have a horrendous death toll. Expert modeling predicts we would lose an additional 160,000 Americans. So the only way to increase the effectiveness of the rollout is to also implement other precautionary measures like social distancing, mask-wearing, hand hygiene, and improved ventilation. 

Also, that number is the best-case scenario. A highly clinically effective vaccine is truly only as good as it’s rollout. Recently A. David Paltiel, a professor at the Yale School of Public Health, was quoted saying, “vaccines don’t save lives, vaccination programs do.” Infrastructure and vaccine rollout is going to be a major contributor to vaccine impact. 

How is the vaccine rollout coming?

Well, it is not news that the rollout has been bumpy. According to the CDC, about 4.6 million people have received the first dose in the United States while the goal was 20 million by the end of 2020. In reality, the United States only distributed 14 million and of those, only about 4 have been administered.  

There have been a few major issues with this rollout which is really decentralized due to a lack of leadership from the Federal government. These issues are even predicted to cause such delays we may see millions of vaccines expire before being distributed. And it won’t be easy to get more because the Trump administration passed on purchasing another round last summer and now the EU has purchased the remaining supply. It could be June before we receive another delivery after the initial 100 million are delivered. 

The super cold temperature that the vaccine requires created a major hurdle in vaccine rollout. But it is not just finding the freezers that can store them but also the lack of funding to give nurses and doctors the training they need in order to properly handle them. Add in an already taxed health system and there are just simply not enough bodies available to give out the vaccines and no money to hire and train more. 

Another issue has been technology. Some states like New Mexico and DC tried online portals for registering but saw major issues with their websites and technology. Even the system built to communicate from the Federal government to the states about when they are getting shipments doesn't work. 

The political nature of this pandemic is a major hurdle to a swift vaccine rollout. In many states, Governors and other elected officials were making statements about the rollout that were simply not true causing mass confusion for their citizens and the hospital networks trying to distribute the vaccine. In some states, elected officials are making sweeping changes to established plans with no notice and no scientific evidence to support it like in the case of Colorado where the Governor halted the plan to immunize prisoners and demoted people living in shelters and the unhoused population. Our health systems unfortunately prioritize political will over the science of where the coronavirus is actually more destructive.  

In America, our system has prioritized medicine and severely neglected our public health system. The current administration even went as far as throwing out the pandemic plan that was put into place during the Obama administration. Having an employer-based insurance and private healthcare system is the number one reason we are seeing this roll out go so poorly and it is going to cost us hundreds of thousands of lives. Countries like Israel, where by law everyone must register with a health care provider, is vaccinating over 150,000 people per day. 

What about here in Washington State? 

Washington state is the 38th in the country for vaccination rates in the USA as of today. 1.2% of Washingtonians have received the first dose of the vaccine, so that is 92,700 doses distributed which is 24% of the 389,250 doses we’ve received. 

COVID-19 FEDERAL RELIEF PACKAGE

The most recent headlines coming out of Congress are all about Senator Mitch McConnell's block of an increase in the size of stimulus checks from $600 to $2,000 in the most recent COVID-19 Relief package. Which even drew some scorn from members of his own party. The sentiment is that when it comes to working-class people we can’t afford it but when it comes to corporate bailouts and tax breaks we can always seem to find the money. Before this check, the last emergency stimulus Americans received was way back in the spring. This block got both Mitch McConnell and Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s homes vandalized. 

Benefits that were included in the most recent package are: 

• $600 direct payments for every adult and child earning up to $75,000 with smaller amounts going to those making up to $87,000. 

• Unemployment benefits were extended to offer up to $300 per week through mid-march which also includes self-employed and gig workers. 

• It extended the rent moratorium until January 31st and included $25 billion in rental assistance.

• 10 Billion was included for child care centers.

• It added an additional 13 billion to SNAP assistance. 

• The agreement also includes 284 billion for paycheck protection loans with 15 billion being reserved for live music venues, independent movie theaters, and cultural institutions.
  There is 68 billion for the purchase and distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine as well as help states conduct testing. 

• There is 7 billion included to increase broadband internet access to help students and unemployed workers. 

• There is 82 billion in funding for schools and universities to assist with the reopening. 

• 13 billion was included for farmers and agriculture. 
  
  

Also included in the 5,593-page bill is a lot really odd things added as well like a provision to make the cost of meals a deductible business expense, a subsection on doping in horse racing as well as additional tax cuts for the industry that is most popular in McConnel’s state of Kentucky, making illegal streaming a felony, and a warning to China against interfering in the naming of the next Dalai Lama. There is also money set aside in there for funding three new museums and a provision to stop surprise medical billing requiring hospitals to provide an easy to understand invoice 3 days before any planned procedures.

Probably the most nefarious thing we saw was that congress made it so that the Paycheck protection loan expenditures, although not considered taxable income, can be written off which will disproportionately benefit large corporations. 

Have a question about the Coronavirus pandemic? Reach out to us and we might answer it on the next episode of The Coronavirus Update, Mondays and Wednesdays at 6:15 pm.