Coronavirus Update February 24, 2021
The South African Variant in King County
The more viral B.1.351, also known as the South African variant, has officially arrived in King County according to the Washington State Department of Health. First identified in December in South Africa, the B.1.351 strain is a “variant concern” for its ability to evade the body’s immune response, decreasing some antibodies’ ability to neutralize the virus. This mutation seems to make it easier for people to get reinfected with COVID-19 and decrease the effectiveness of the current vaccines. There is also research showing it can cause a more severe COVID-19 illness in young people. Currently, the B.1.351 variant has been discovered in 10 states across the U.S.
As of the publishing of this article, contact tracers have been unable to contact the person infected with this more viral strain and are unable to give details on if they contracted from travel or community spread. In a media briefing, Dr. Jeff Duchin, Public Health — Seattle & King County (PHSKC) Health Officer, reminded viewers it is “impossible” to know if this person has infected others but that it’s also important to remember that the detected cases are just “the tip of the iceberg.” Researchers are hoping to increase genotyping positive COVID-19 results in order to gather more information on how far the variant has spread and how long it has been here.
Public Health officials are urging citizens to double down on their efforts to prevent COVID-19 transmissions through double masking, continued physical distancing, and good hygiene. It is also expected that we will see a booster shot specifically for this variant from Moderna in the future.
New Mapping Tool from UW to Help Increase COVID-19 Vaccination Equity
The City of Seattle now has a new tool courtesy of the University of Washington to help improve equitable vaccine distribution. The “Social Vulnerability Index and COVID Story Map" allows the city to compare by zip code and census tract, communities COVID-19 positivity rate, and other potential vulnerability factors such as minority levels, poverty levels, household size, and transportation access.
“This tool is critical to ensure our limited supply goes to communities who have been disproportionately impacted by COVID-19,” Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan said in a prepared statement. “Those who have been hit hardest by the pandemic should be the first to get vaccinated, and the City of Seattle — working with our partners — can and should lead in the way inequitable access.” The city has plans to host more pop-up clinics in the areas hit hardest by COVID-19 with a strategy to ensure the vaccine does go to those directly in the community.
Another Interactive COVID-19 Tool but this time from The New York Times
The New York Times has created an interactive tool tracking when the United States could reach herd immunity either through vaccination or community spread. Herd immunity is the point when enough people are immune to the virus that it can no longer spread through a population. The tool from the New York Times allows you to model different scenarios that are super fascinating.
If we model different scenarios we will see some interesting data. For example, if we continue at our current pace, about 1.7 million shots per day, we could reach the herd immunity threshold by July. In that time though 100,000 people could die from the virus. Now if we able to increase vaccination to 5 million shots per day we could reach the herd immunity threshold by April. In that time, 80,000 people could die from the virus. So we could save a ton of lives.
A scarier model they offer is around relaxing physical distancing. If we end restrictions now, we could reach the herd immunity threshold by May. But at that time, 320,000 people could die from the virus. That’s pretty close to doubling the number of people who have died in the last year. Now, If we keep restrictions in place, we could reach the herd immunity threshold by July. In that time, 100,000 people could die from the virus.
The scariest model is around if a more contagious variant spreads. Using the U.K. variant as an example, which in King County doubles in the community every 10 days, if we keep precautions in place a more contagious variant will spread faster and raise the herd immunity threshold. We could still expect to reach herd immunity in July, but new deaths could double, to 200,000 people. If a more contagious variant appears and we relax precautions, we could reach a higher herd immunity threshold by April. But in that scenario, 530,000 people could die, doubling the current U.S. death toll.
This tool is important for people to understand the gravity of the situation. Big numbers like this are hard to humanize but my hope is this tool might really impress the importance of physical distancing, masks, and hygiene.
105-Year Old beats COVID-19. Her secret weapon? Gin Soaked raisins.
Lucia DeClark, a 105-year-old from New Jersey, has survived COVID-19 and the Spanish Flu, crediting gin-soaked raisins, no junk food, and prayer. Born in 1916, Lucia had just completed her second dose of the vaccine which was also likely a contributor to her mild symptoms and quick recovery.
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Join Omari Salisbury and Producer Nikki as they bring you the latest COVID-19 news from the Pacific Northwest. Watch past episodes on our Youtube channel or listen as a podcast on your favorite podcast platform.
