State of the Mariners – All-Star Break Edition
By Brittany Wisner, edited by Charles Hamaker
Seattle, WA - The Seattle Mariners have sputtered into the halfway point of the season on fumes, dragging a partially torn bumper behind them and the lights on their dashboard flickering weakly as the Houston Astros rapidly approach in their rear-view mirror.
It has been a starkly dualistic first half for the M’s. On one hand, they are in first place in the American League West and six games above .500 with one of the best pitching staffs in all of Major League Baseball.
On the other hand, what was once a 10-game lead in the division has since dwindled down to one, primarily due to an offense so anemic it is on pace to break league records – and not the good kind.
For this edition of State of the Mariners, let’s reflect on the entire first half of the 2024 season and break down what has gone right and what has gone wrong.
The good
Carried by their starting rotation, Seattle’s pitching staff has posted some of the best numbers in the league thus far. After 98 games, here’s how the Mariner arms stack up against the 29 other teams in the league:
3rd in ERA (3.40)
1st in WHIP (1.08)
2nd in K/BB (3.50)
6th in K% (23.5%)
1st in BB% (6.7%)
1st in BAA (.216)
5th in fWAR (11.6)
1st in Quality Starts (58)
Source: Fangraphs
While the bullpen has been solid (9th in ERA, 2nd in WHIP), injuries to key members have limited their depth and impacted their effectiveness at times.
Luckily, due to the dominance of the starting rotation, the bullpen has had to throw the fewest innings in MLB thus far.
If the Mariners have achieved any level of what might be considered success in the first half, it is because of the starting rotation. By fWAR, only the Philadelphia Phillies’ starters have been better than the Mariners in the first half of 2024.
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert throughout the 2024 season to this point, as we’ve reached the MLB All-Star break. (Photos by Rio Giancarlo)
Logan Gilbert in particular has dazzled. Posting a 2.79 ERA, he leads the league in both WHIP (0.87) and innings pitched (132.1) amongst qualified players. In addition to those stats, he leads the Mariners’ rotation in strikeout rate and batting average against. Opponents are making contact with his pitches at the lowest rate of his career, and the contact he has given up has generally been weak contact. His dominant first half earned him his first career All-Star game nod.
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby throughout the 2024 season to this point, as we’ve reached the MLB All-Star break. (Photos by Rio Giancarlo)
George Kirby has also had a stellar year, posting a 3.29 ERA and – to the surprise of few – leading the league in K/BB (8.92). He has accumulated the most Wins Above Replacement amongst all the starters in the Mariners’ rotation with 3.3 fWAR. Given his reputation for throwing strikes, Kirby has made a concerted effort this year to actually throw in the zone a little less, knowing that is what hitters have come to expect of him. Kirby has also adjusted his positioning on the rubber, moving slightly toward the 3rd base side which he feels has helped him locate his slider more effectively. These adjustments have likely aided in an overall decrease in his contact rate and increase of swing-and-miss on his slider in particular. Kirby has used his slider as a put away pitch at nearly the same frequency as his 4-seam fastball, per Baseball Savant.
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Luis Castillo throughout the course of the 2024 season so far, as we’ve reached the MLB All-Star break. (Photos by Kevin Ng)
Luis Castillo has endured a couple hiccups this year but has still put together 12 quality starts, the third most on the team behind Kirby (13) and Gilbert (16). Posting a more than respectable 3.53 ERA, Castillo leads the rotation in K/9 (8.90). He has, however, been giving up contact at the highest rate of his career, with batters making contact 76.3% of the time compared to his career average of 72%. Castillo has begun experimenting with a new slider grip which reduces the velocity of the pitch by about 3.3 mph and will hopefully allow him to induce more swing and miss on the pitch.
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Bryce Miller throughout the course of the 2024 season so far, as we’ve reached the MLB All-Star break. (Photos by Kevin Ng)
Bryce Miller came out guns blazing this season, armed with a new splitter that he spent the offseason meticulously developing in an effort to attack left-handed hitters better. Last year, lefties slashed .303/.358/.558 against Miller. This year, they are slashing just .220/.282/.423 with Miller inducing a 25.6% whiff rate on his splitter. While he has struggled away from T-Mobile Park, his ERA still sits at a respectable 3.63 and Miller has already equaled his number of Quality Starts from last year with nine.
Seattle Mariners starting pitchers Emerson Hancock and Bryan Woo throughout the 2024 season to this point, as we’ve reached the MLB All-Star break. (Photos by Rio Giancarlo)
While Bryan Woo by and large has been fantastic while on the mound, his health has prevented him from establishing any sort of consistency this year. After getting a late start to the season due to elbow inflammation, struggling to bounce back from a few starts and then hitting the IL with a hamstring strain, Woo has thrown just 44 innings so far this year. He has posted a 2.45 ERA and 0.89 WHIP when able to make his starts and has looked much improved against left-handed hitters. Emerson Hancock has filled in when Woo has been unavailable and has a 4.76 ERA over his 45 innings pitched. Hancock is far from a strikeout pitcher with just a 14.1% strikeout rate, but he has induced the most soft contact of any starter in the M’s rotation.
The bad
While the pitching staff has held up their end of the bargain, the offense has failed to do so. In fact, the lack of production over the last month has been so poor the team has been unable to overcome it, leading to their recent skid of going 9-15 into the break.
Here’s how the Mariner bats rank amongst the rest of the league:
27th in Runs (379)
26th in RBI (362)
30th in Batting Average (.219)
25th in On-Base Percentage (.300)
28th in Slugging Percentage (.367)
28th in OPS (.667)
21st in wRC+ (95)
1st in Strikeout Percentage (28.1%)
Source: Fangraphs
The only offensive stat the Mariners fall in the top half of the league in is home runs, of which they rank 11th with 109.
While there are a plethora of issues with the Seattle offense – including that they are averaging 10.34 strikeouts per game, putting them on pace for 1,675 strikeouts this season which would be an all-time MLB record – any analysis should start with the core three players.
For the sake of comparison, here are the league averages for 2024:
BA/OBP/SLG: .243/.312/.397
OPS: .709
wRC+: always 100
J.P. Crawford - .209/.304/.358, .663 OPS, 95 wRC+
Cal Raleigh - .216/.299/.435, .734 OPS, 108 wRC+
Julio Rodríguez - .267/.318/.372, .690 OPS, 102 wRC+
These numbers looked significantly worse just one week ago, but to their credit, both Raleigh and Rodríguez hit hot streaks right before the break which helped to salvage their slash lines. The Mariners hope those streaks will continue coming out of the break and that Crawford gets going as well, as the core of Crawford, Raleigh and Rodríguez should be the team’s primary run producers. Outside of a couple hot streaks from Raleigh and the recent week from Rodríguez, they have largely underperformed all season.
Seattle Mariners centerfielder Julio Rodríguez, outside of some moments through the 2024 season so far, has not lived up to his potential and the team needs him to get things going offensively. (Photos by Blake Dahlin)
For a couple months earlier in the season, some of the ancillary players took turns performing at a high enough level that made up for the struggles of the core; specifically, the team received periods of production from Josh Rojas, Dylan Moore, Luke Raley and Ty France prior to his stint on the Injured List. Those players have since dropped off, their regression felt exponentially more in late June and early July while the core three were also failing to produce.
Dom Canzone - .211/.289/.394, .683 OPS, 94 wRC+
Ty France - .228/.317/.357, .674 OPS, 100 wRC+
Mitch Garver - .174/.289/.356, .645 OPS, 90 wRC+
Dylan Moore - .211/.313/.401, .714 OPS, 107 wRC+
Luke Raley - .238/.295/.415, .710 OPS, 105 wRC+
Josh Rojas - .244/.323/.357, .680 OPS, 100 wRC+
Some of these numbers are serviceable to a degree assuming the core is performing to the level it should be, but all in all the group has just not been productive enough. The highest OPS and wRC+ is held by a platoon player in Dylan Moore. The everyday players in Ty France and Josh Rojas have a wRC+ hovering right at league average and both have seen their OPS dip dramatically. Mitch Garver, who was supposed to be the everyday DH coming into the season, has underperformed across the board.
And then, there are arguably the two most troubling players, whose numbers have been nowhere near serviceable.
Mitch Haniger - .208/.282/.336, .618 OPS, 81 wRC+
Jorge Polanco - .197/.285/.282, .567 OPS, 69 wRC+
Brought in to be an everyday player, Polanco was initially poised to hit either in front of or behind Julio Rodríguez. His lack of any sort of production whatsoever has impacted this roster greatly.
Veterans Mitch Haniger and Jorge Polanco were brought in via trade as a way for the Seattle Mariners to add veteran hitters in the field, but they’ve both largely struggled overall during the 2024 MLB season so far. (Photos by Liz Wolter)
Haniger was not necessarily thought of to be an everyday player given his injury history, but the lack of production from others forced the Mariners to play him nearly every day to begin the year. That has likely contributed to his fall off and he has been unable to turn things around thus far.
Overall, the team has needed more consistent production from its support players in addition to needing more from the “core three.” The offense continuing to perform at this level is simply not sustainable if the Mariners are set on winning the division.
Second Half
Inevitably, the biggest factor for the Mariners in the second half of the season will be the performance of Julio Rodríguez. When Julio is going right, he is an absolute game-changer. It can be debated whether or not relying so much on one player is a smart model for building an offense, but that is the nature of the roster as it is currently constructed; they need Julio to produce in order to be effective.
Raleigh and Crawford are the second pieces of the puzzle. From there, Seattle will likely need to look outside of the organization to bolster their roster and provide their "core three" with more support.
Could the Seattle Mariners end up trading for Chicago White Sox star outfielder Luis Robert Jr ahead of the deadline? (Photos by Rio Giancarlo)
It is going to be a challenging market for President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto and General Manager Justin Hollander. As of now, there are only a handful of teams who are certain to be selling at the July 30th trade deadline: the Chicago White Sox, the Miami Marlins, the Colorado Rockies, the Oakland Athletics and probably the Los Angeles Angels. The Mariners have the farm system to out-bid just about any other team for a player they want, but in what is sure to be an extreme sellers market, it will likely come down to just how much they are willing to overpay.
Without significant additions, it seems unlikely that the Mariners will be able to position themselves as serious postseason contenders.
What’s Next?
The Mariners come out of the All-Star break with arguably their most important series yet, a three-game set at home against the Houston Astros. The Astros are 50-46 and one game behind the Mariners in the American League West standings, pulling ever closer to the Mariners since the teams road trip beginning on June 18th when the losing really started to mount up for Seattle and their strong lead atop the division started to dissolve. The Mariners can view this as a massive opportunity to return to the right sort of track, and these games could go a long way down the road in case a head-to-head tiebreaker of sorts comes into play.
From that series against Houston, the Los Angeles Angels come to town for three games to close out the homestand before Seattle takes off on a road trip where they’ll face the Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox for a six-game road trip.
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